Biden UK US Trade deal

Though Donald Trump splits opinion across the world, under his sovereignty of our Western neighbours, the UK’s biggest export partner outside the European Union, there was growing optimism a much talked about trade deal could be reached. Whilst it is important to remember that during Trump’s time in office there were obstacles surrounding the topic of a trade deal, such as the US’s desire for the UK to honour Ireland’s wants in the Brexit discussions, there was a sense that a trade deal had been closer than ever before. Looking past the dubbed ‘bromance’ with Boris Johnson and the fact Trump is half-Scottish, many say the strong relation between the two countries and thus the likely prospect of a trade deal bled from the fact Trump, a proud nationalist himself, is very much in favour of Brexit, claiming ‘I think Brexit is very good for the UK, it is going to be very good for the UK.’ The importance of such a potential deal cannot be understated, for currently the US earn around 400 million pounds from tariffs on UK exports yearly, meaning that if a free trade deal were reached, the UK should see increased sales of our exports in the US without such taxes imposed on them. Though it is easy to see these reasons as primarily why a trade deal is so craved by many in the UK, the real reason is that reaching a deal with the US and maintaining a good rapport with them is more important than ever with the ever growing prospect of a no deal Brexit. Whilst it has never been said that a trade deal with the US would make up the trade lost with the European Union, it would certainly go a long way in helping us reduce the deficit of the exchange lost with the EU.

So, what is the commotion surrounding Biden’s election and the UK-US trade deal? The simple answer is that under the new Democrat leader of the USA, a trade deal is looking near impossible. We can contrast Trump’s affinity with the UK and his support of Brexit, making a trade deal look likely, against Biden’s affinity with the EU and his outspoken disregard of Brexit, making a trade deal look less likely. Described by some as ‘Anti-British,’ Biden has been quoted in the past saying that the UK will be at the ‘back of the queue,’ when serving in office with Obama at the time of the referendum. With his priorities seeming to lie with striking a revolutionary US-EU trade deal, it now seems that a US-UK deal may never happen. Biden has issued two deadlines for the UK over talks: he will not prioritise trade deal talks in the first 100 days of his presidency ( the UK officially leaves the EU in just over 40 days, on 31st December), and until the UK honours Ireland’s demands in Brexit negotiations. The latter may provide an insight into why Biden is so opposed to Brexit- he is a proud 5th generation Irish- American, and has made his thoughts clear on the topic ironically in a rather Trump fashion, tweeting ‘any trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K. must be contingent on respect for the Agreement and preventing the return of a hard border. Period.’

This accumulation of other priorities and a disdain for Brexit would make it seem that a trade deal is much less probable under Biden than his predecessor.  Many hoped that a transatlantic trade deal would mask at least some of the impacts of Brexit, which the UK will start to feel on January 1st 2021, meaning that, as Joe waves Bi-Den to such a deal, it is feared that the UK economy could be plunged into another recession that could have been avoided if such a deal had been struck.