On the 27th of February 2022, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, announced that Russian-owned planes will no longer be allowed to fly over EU airspace. The sanctions that NATO has imposed on Russia will harm not only Putin but the Russian citizens who protest his actions. I spoke with 2 Russian teenagers to get their views on the situation, however, for the purposes of their safety their full names will be withheld.
Matvey (not real name) told me what he thought of Putin’s reasoning:
“Putin attacked Ukraine because he didn’t want Ukraine to join NATO, that’s the main reason. So to discourage non-NATO countries from joining NATO they decided to attack those exact non-NATO countries, which is astonishing and clearly illogical, it has only made non-NATO countries like Finland want to join them more.”
“Many Russians believe that Putin will make our nation proud, and he has done actions like in Crimea to build Russian pride. His reign is clearly about making Russia strong after the USSR but in this case, he’s made a mistake.”
I spoke at length with Mikhail (not real name) and we discussed the general impact of the invasion on Russia’s reputation:
Mikhail: “In my opinion, what they are doing is just unfathomable to me. What Russia is doing in a foreign country, I do not know. “
“I don’t understand what they want now. The operation was to secure Donetsk and Luhansk but going all the way to the capital is obviously unnecessary aggression.”
Adam (me): “People have said it's done for Putin’s legacy. It's not rational whatsoever, purely ideological action that would earn him a place in history.”
Mikhail: “If the plan is to take the capital that won’t happen. People will not give it away at any cost. They are just making the Ukrainians look like heroes”
“Yes, the action was to secure Ukraine before the United States move in and makes an agreement with Ukraine because if they don't NATO missiles will be stationed right under the Russian border. So Putin made the choice to go in first rather than allow Ukraine to make ties with the West.”
Adam: “I think although Ukraine might look good now in the long run it doesn't matter because Putin will have expanded Russia’s empire”
Mikhail: “Many speculate he wants to restore the Soviet Union”
Adam: “Putin’s end goal might be to leave a legacy of himself so the short-term protests and threats from NATO he doesn't care about.
But since the structure of the Russian government is basically that the only people that advise him are the ones that say what he wants to hear he's underestimated everyone, he's especially underestimated the backlash he would receive from the Russian and Ukrainian people.
I think there will be another Russian Revolution soon that topples him.”
Mikhail: “I agree. But the tides will turn only if the aristocracy starts protesting.
Which is very likely considering the upper class have children that study abroad and all have homes abroad.
After the sanctions, their children can’t study in international facilities anymore and they will just be stuck in Russia which will anger them.”
Some closing thoughts:
Many Russians do not support Putin and the rising anti-Kremlin sentiment is fueling protests in Russia.
Though Ukraine is holding out now, Russia has only used a portion of its weaponry and could likely outnumber Ukraine with time.
Regardless of whether Ukraine falls, Putin will lose significant support as the Russian protestors are receiving international support.
As more young Russian soldiers die, I believe the pressure on the Kremlin could grow large enough to topple Putin’s autocracy.
However, the power vacuum that Putin leaves could be filled by an even worse leader and Russia’s future is far from certain.
