Russia and Ukraine are now in a state of war, following Putin officially invading Ukraine on the 24th of February after months of lining up troops on the borders and promising to not invade.
Putin claims this invasion is necessary because the people need protection from bullying and genocide, as well as for the ‘demilitarisation and de-Nazification’ of Ukraine despite there being very little evidence for this. On the 24th of February, he announced Russia could not ‘feel safe, develop and exist’ because of a constant threat from Ukraine. 'He wants to re-unify the Soviet Union, and Ukraine is the way to begin doing this' says Lola Willis, a politics student.
The main reason Putin gives for his decision to attack, however, is NATO’s eastward expansion and talk of Ukraine joining the organisation. NATO massively threatens Russia because it was founded to counter the Soviet Empire in Europe, and therefore a country that is so close to them economically, culturally, and geographically wanting to join is seen by Russia as NATO trying to start a fight and move into Russian territory.
In 1991, the Soviet Union fell and countries such as Georgia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine became independent (Georgia is also now part of NATO). But Russia still wants to influence them due to the idea these areas of land still belong to Russia, and a country joining NATO would limit this. Ukraine first tried to join in 2008 (something they had every right to do considering they are a sovereign country) and this is when the Ukrainian-Russian conflict started.
Putin is angry (and worried) about Ukraine potentially joining NATO because, in 1990, NATO promised they would not expand to the east and encroach on Russian territory, but people disagree over this, and it is unclear whether this agreement existed. It does not help that the USA, Russia’s main historical enemy, is not only a member of it but leads it.
He also argues that if Ukraine joined NATO, NATO would try to recapture Crimea, a territory Russia annexed in 2014. Viktor Yanukovych (a former pro-Russian Ukrainian President) was ousted in 2014 and the Russians took advantage of this, establishing military control in Crimea (a peninsular connected to Ukraine) claiming to be protecting ethnic Russians and Russian speakers from Ukrainian persecution and it is estimated around 14,000 people died.
Understandably, former Soviet countries joining NATO prove to be a huge threat to Russia, however, Ukraine would not even be able to join any time soon because the NATO countries are sceptical of what this will mean for them (an obligation to come to Ukraine’s defence and angering Russia). Similarly, NATO will not intervene in Ukraine militarily because they are not part of it, however, sanctions have been put on Russia by countries such as Germany and Britain.
Lola Willis says, 'I think at the moment the likelihood of direct military involvement from NATO seems low as it doesn't seem likely Putin will invade a NATO country. He is aware that would mean immediate war with them, including with the USA, and he is aware of mutually assured destruction and the global destruction launching nuclear weapons would inflict, but, the likelihood of Putin involving Ukraine seemed low, and 'surely he won't do that' doesn’t seem to apply to Putin'
If you would like to help, charities like Sunflower of Peace (they help doctors and paramedics and are collecting for supplies), United Help Ukraine (providing medical aid and humanitarian relief) and UNICEF are welcoming donations.
